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Growth is projected to edge down to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.1% in 2019. Exports and business investment are increasingly driving the recovery. Private consumption growth will moderate due to waning job growth and weaker household purchasing power due to rising inflation. Consumer price inflation is edging up as excess capacity narrows and will accelerate in 2019. The current account surplus is projected to remain high.
The stock of non-performing loans in the banking system has declined markedly from its peak thanks to policies put in place. In 2018, the fiscal stance is projected to be slightly expansionary. Reflecting perceived increased policy uncertainty, government bond yields have risen recently. Possible policy changes by the incoming government are not incorporated in the projection. Priorities should be given to shifting the spending mix towards infrastructure and enhancing targeted anti-poverty programmes to tackle large social and regional divides while boosting growth.
Economic Survey of Italy (survey page)